Canada's Emission Projections for 2020 and 2030

This chart was prepared by Environment Canada for Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions Reference Case,

It is aligned with Canada’s historical emissions from 1990 to 2014 as presented in National Inventory Report 1990-2014: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada (NIR).

The highest emissions are projected under a scenario aligned with the National Energy Board’s high oil and gas prices with higher-than-average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) between 2013 and 2030 (2.3% compared with 1.8% in the reference scenario).

The lowest emissions scenario includes lower GDP growth and the National Energy Board’s low world oil and gas prices.

Acording to Environment Canada, these scenarios suggest that the expected range of emissions in 2030 could be between 697 MtCO2e in the lowest emissions scenario and 790 MtCO2e in the highest scenario, not including contributions for LULUCF. This 93 MtCO2e range will continue to change over time with further government actions, technological change, economic conditions and developments in energy markets.

The chart indicates the projected breakdown by sector of the middle emissions scenario (742 MtCO2e)

Sector

MtCO2e

Oil and Gas

233

Electricity

34

Transportation

157

Heavy Industry

97

Buildings

94

Agriculture

74

Waste & Others

53