Federal Emissions and Carbon Budget

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon budget is shared among all countries. There are a number of proposed sharing strategies.

Canada's population share of the global carbon budget is 2,700 Mt CO2e for a likely (66%) chance of keeping the increase in global temperatures below 1.5 degrees C. Canada's emissions share is 9,140 Mt CO2e.

We have calculated that if Canada is to follow the emissions path in the Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) we will exceed our population share by 2021 and our emissions share by 2034.

This chart illustrates the cumulative emissions of population and emissions sharing on the cumulative CO2e that Canada generates. They also illustrate the effect of the PCF and IPCC reduction targets.

Comparing projected cumulative emissions if follow PCF with the new IPCC target

 

In order to use population sharing Canada's emissions will need to be reduced to net-zero by 2025 and we won't have enough time for that. Our alternatives will be to use other sharing strategies (e.g. emissions sharing,) Carbon Capture and Storage, and assist underdeveloped countries in reducing their emissions. The carbon budgets of the different plans are illustrated by the areas under the lines.

For emissions sharing Canada's emissions will need to be reduced to net-zero by 2044.


1. Canada's population share is the share of the carbon budget based on the population as a fraction of the global carbon budget. Canada's share of the global population is 0.5%.

2. The October 2018 IPCC global carbon budget is 420 Gt CO2 for a likely (66%) chance of keeping global temperatures from increasing more that 1.5 C. IPCC reports budgets using CO2 but Canada reports most emissions as CO2e which includes other warming gases and is approximately 1.3 times the amount of CO2.

3. Canada's Pan-Canadian Framework reduction targets are 30% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 (of 2005 emissions.)

4. An emissions share is the share of the global carbon budget calculated as the fraction of Canada's emissions as a share of the global carbon budget. Canada's share of global emissions is 1.7%.

5. The recommended IPCC reduction targets are 45% by 2030 and 100% by 2050 (of 2010 emissions.)

6. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Canada's PCF enables Canada to meet or exceed its NDC.