Global Emissions

The global targets are based on the IPCC carbon budgets. There are no official targets but we have calculated what the targets would be if the limits for remaining around 1.5oC (using the recent carbon budget for 1.5C) or reaching 45% below 2010 levels and net-zero emissions by 2050 (as recommended by the recent IPCC report.) Global targets are specified as Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

We have also calculated what Canada, Ontario and Toronto must do to meet these targets.

The following charts are an example of what global emission reductions need to be along with the cumulative emissions resulting from the suggested limits. They assume that emissions are reduced at the same rate each year. There is a history of global emissions here.

Suggested Global Emissions Reduction Targets

The following chart represents the targets for keeping the total global emissions under the cumulative limits for a likely (66%) chance of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 (green) and and for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 (blue).

Global Emission Reduction Targets

Cumulative Emissions Due to Suggested Targets

The horizontal lines represent the maximum cumulative emissions for a likely (66%) chance of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 1.5C (orange) and net-zero by 2050 (red). The other lines represent the cumulative emissions if we follow the targets for 1.5C (green) and net-zero by 2050 (blue).

Click on the charts to see them full size

The emission reduction targets for remaining below 1.5C or net-zero emissions by 2050 are in this table (compared to 2018 emissions).

Year

<1.5oC

Net-zero by 2050

2020

1,3% above
38,900 MtCO2

1.3% above
38,900 MtCO2

2030

100% (by 2037)

52%
18,555 MtCO2

2040

 

75%
9,280 MtCO2

2050

 

100%

 

What happens if we do not reduce our annual emissions?

According to CarbonBrief in 2016:

[T]here are just over four years’ worth of current emissions left before it becomes unlikely that we’ll meet the 1.5C target without overshooting and relying on unproven “negative emissions” technologies to remove large amounts of CO2 out of the air later in the century."