The September 2018 IPCC Special Report increased the Global Carbon Budget for a 66% of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards per-capita sharing. (We are working on updating this.)

Ontario's Emission Reduction Targets

Ontario’s share of the global carbon budget can be calculated based on various sharing strategies: the main ones are:

  • percentage of the global population (Ontario's share of the global population is 0.19%).
  • annual emissions (Ontario's share of global emissions is 0.39%)
  • percentage of Canada's emissions (Ontario's share of global emissions is 23%)

If Ontario reduces their annual emissions after 2017 by approximately 10 MtCO2e each year the target emissions reductions would be as follows:

  • 2020 30%
  • 2025 65%
  • 2030 100%

If we do this, Ontario will have achieved zero carbon emissions before 2032 and not exceeded our fair share of the global carbon budget for a keeping the temperature increase around 2 degrees C.

A comparison of the possible targets

The possible targets for remaining below the given temperatures are in this table (compared to 1990 emissions)

Year

Ontario plan targets

Necessary targets for keeping temperatures from rising by more than 2 degrees

2020 15% 30%
2025   65%
2030 37% 100%
2050 80%