Ontario's Targets

The following charts compare Ontario's Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) targets with our calculation of the targets needed to keep below Ontario's carbon budgets for 1.5 or less than 2 degrees C.

They represent the population-based limits to meet Canada's Paris Agreement pledge. Ontario's CCAP targets will barely meet the population-based limit for remaining below a global temperature increase of 3 degrees C.

CCAP and population-based share emission reduction targets

Population-based and emissions-based share carbon budgets and cumulative emissions resulting from CCAP targets

The green area represents the cumulative CO2e limit for keeping under the temperature of 1.5 degrees C (947 MtCO2e); the yellow area represents the limit for keeping under 2 degrees C (2,368 MtCO2e) and the blue area represents the cumulative CO2e (4,500 MtCO2e) which would result if Ontario's emissions followthe CCAP. The red line represents the limit for keeping below 3 degrees C.

This chart represents the carbon budgets and cumulative emissions that Ontario's plan will lead to (blue line). There are 5 carbon budgets depending upon the maximum global temperature increase (1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C) and sharing strategy (population-based or emissions-based).

Click on the charts to see them full size

The legends for the charts are described below.

The emission reduction limits for remaining below 1.5 or 2 degrees C are in this table (compared to Ontario's 1990 emissions of 170 MtCO2e )

Year
Ontario CCAP targets
Less than 1.5oC
Less than 2oC
2020
15%
145 MtCO2e
100% (by 2016)
31%
117 MtCO2e
2030
37%
107 MtCO2e
 
85%
25 MtCO2e
2040
 
 
100% (by 2033)
2050
80%
34 MtCO2e
 
 

 

How many years of our budgets (from 2016) will Canada have if we do not reduce our annual emissions?

Population-based sharing

Less than 1.5oC
Less than 2oC
Less than 3oC
0 years
9 years
31 years

 

Emissions-based sharing

Less than 1.5oC
Less than 2oC
Less than 3oC
15 years
46 years
119 years

Footnotes

Legend for charts

The diamonds represent the following the targets in the Ontario Climate Change Action Plan:

171 MtCO2e (actual 2012 emissions)
145 MtCO2e (15% below 2005 by 2020)
107 MtCO2e (37% below 2005 by 2030)
 34 MtCO2e (80% below 2005 by 2050)

The green line represents Ontario's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5 degrees C which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The yellow line represents Ontario's limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 2 degrees C. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3 degrees C. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.

Population-based share is based on Ontario's share of the global population (0.19%).

Emissions-based share is based on Ontario's share of global emissions (0.39%)