The following charts compare Ontario's Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) targets with our calculation of the targets needed to keep below Ontario's carbon budgets for 1.5 or less than 2 degrees C.
They represent the population-based limits to meet Canada's Paris Agreement pledge. Ontario's CCAP targets will barely meet the population-based limit for remaining below a global temperature increase of 3 degrees C.
CCAP and population-based share emission reduction targets
Population-based and emissions-based share carbon budgets and cumulative emissions resulting from CCAP targets
The green area represents the cumulative CO2e limit for keeping under the temperature of 1.5 degrees C (947 MtCO2e); the yellow area represents the limit for keeping under 2 degrees C (2,368 MtCO2e) and the blue area represents the cumulative CO2e (4,500 MtCO2e) which would result if Ontario's emissions followthe CCAP. The red line represents the limit for keeping below 3 degrees C.
This chart represents the carbon budgets and cumulative emissions that Ontario's plan will lead to (blue line). There are 5 carbon budgets depending upon the maximum global temperature increase (1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C) and sharing strategy (population-based or emissions-based).
Click on the charts to see them full size
The emission reduction limits for remaining below 1.5 or 2 degrees C are in this table (compared to Ontario's 1990 emissions of 170 MtCO2e )
The diamonds represent the following the targets in the Ontario Climate Change Action Plan:
171 MtCO2e (actual 2012 emissions)
145 MtCO2e (15% below 2005 by 2020)
107 MtCO2e (37% below 2005 by 2030)
34 MtCO2e (80% below 2005 by 2050)
The green line represents Ontario's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5 degrees C which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The yellow line represents Ontario's limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 2 degrees C. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3 degrees C. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.