The October 2018 IPCC Special Report (SR15) increased the Global Carbon Budget for a 66% of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards per-capita sharing. (We are working on updating this.)
The following charts compare Ontario's Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) targets with our calculation of the targets needed to keep below Ontario's carbon budgets for 1.5 or less than 2 degrees C.
They represent the population-based limits to meet Canada's Paris Agreement pledge. Ontario's CCAP targets will barely meet the population-based limit for remaining below a global temperature increase of 3 degrees C.
CCAP and population-based share of emission reduction targets
|The green area represents the cumulative CO2e limit for keeping global temperature increases under 1.5 degrees C (947 MtCO2e); the yellow area represents the limit for keeping under 2 degrees C (2,368 MtCO2e) and the blue area represents the cumulative CO2e (4,500 MtCO2e) which would result if Ontario's emissions follow the CCAP. The red line represents the limit for keeping below 3 degrees C.|
|This chart represents the carbon budgets and cumulative emissions that Ontario's plan will lead to (blue line). There are 5 carbon budgets depending upon the maximum global temperature increase (1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C) and sharing strategy (population-based or emissions-based).|
Click on the charts to see them full size
The emission reduction limits for remaining below 1.5 or 2 degrees C are in this table (compared to Ontario's 1990 emissions of 170 MtCO2e )
|Year||Ontario CCAP targets||Less than 1.5oC||Less than 2oC|
|100% (by 2016)||31%
|2040||100% (by 2033)|
The diamonds represent the following the targets in the Ontario Climate Change Action Plan:
171 MtCO2e (actual 2012 emissions)
145 MtCO2e (15% below 2005 by 2020)
107 MtCO2e (37% below 2005 by 2030)
34 MtCO2e (80% below 2005 by 2050)
The green line represents Ontario's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5 degrees C which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The yellow line represents Ontario's limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 2 degrees C. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3 degrees C. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.