Ontario's Targets

The following charts compare Ontario's Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) targets with our calculation of the targets needed to keep below Ontario's carbon budgets for < 1.5 or 2 degrees C.

CCAP and population-based share emission reduction targets
Population-based and emissions-based share carbon budgets and cumulative emissions resulting from CCAP targets
The population-based limits are those required to meet Canada's Paris Agreement pledge. Ontario's CCAP targets will barely meet the population-based limit for remaining below a global temperature increase of 3 degrees C.  The legend for the chart is described below.
This represents the carbon budgets and cumulative emissions that Ontario's plan will lead to (blue line). There are 4 carbon budgets depending upon the maximum global temperature increase (1.5 and 2 degrees C) and sharing strategy (population-based or emissions-based).

Click on the charts to see them full size

The emission reduction limits for remaining below 1.5 or 2 degrees C are in this table (compared to Ontario's 1990 emissions of 170 MtCO2e )

Year
Ontario CCAP targets
Less than 1.5oC
Less than 2oC
2020
15%
145 MtCO2e
100% (by 2016)
31%
117 MtCO2e
2030
37%
107 MtCO2e
 
85%
25 MtCO2e
2040
 
 
100% (by 2033)
2050
80%
34 MtCO2e
 
 

 

How many years of our budgets (from 2016) will Canada have if we do not reduce our annual emissions?

Population-based sharing

Less than 1.5oC
Less than 2oC
Less than 3oC
0 years
9 years
31 years

 

Emissions-based sharing

Less than 1.5oC
Less than 2oC
Less than 3oC
15 years
46 years
119 years

Footnotes

Legend for charts

The diamonds represent the following:

171 MtCO2e (2012 emissions)
145 MtCO2e (15% below 2005 by 2020)
107 MtCO2e (37% below 2005 by 2030)
34 MtCO2e (80% below 2005 by 2050)

The green line represents Ontario's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5 degrees C which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The yellow line represents Ontario's limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 2 degrees C. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3 degrees C. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.

Population-based share is based on Ontario's share of the global population (0.19%).

Emissions-based share is based on Ontario's share of global emissions (0.39%)