This chart is our version of the chart in the Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change (PDF) published by the Canadian government as part of the negotiations with the Provinces in December 2016.
The data in the original chart, which formed the basis for our chart, begins at a high number of expected emissions (742 MtCO2e) and then works through reductions to a lower level (the current Canadian target of 523 MtCO2e by 2030). Therefore the chart reads from top to bottom. It's important to remember these are REDUCTIONS. It starts with the emissions which were projected, in November 2016, to be 742 MtCO2e by 2030 if we adopt a a business as usual scenario.
The top 3 bands of the chart indicate how the government plans to reduce these emissions based on plans from the Climate Plan, (i.e. government regulations and others such as carbon pricing and actions by provinces such as Ontario and Quebec purchasing carbon credits from California), until they reach their target of 523 MtCO2e (the 30% target by 2030 committed to by previous Harper government and which remains unchanged by the Liberals).
The light blue band represents the announced government reductions (89 MtCO2e) and include those due to regulations (e.g. reductions in HFCs, heavy duty vehicles, methane), provincial measures and international cap and trade credits.
The yellow band represents the reductions (86 MtCO2e) due to measures in the Pan-Canadian Framework such as electricity (coal phase-out by 2030), buildings, transportation (federal clean fuel standard) and industry.
The green band is for the additional reductions (44 MtCO2e) from measures such as improved public transit and green infrastructure, technology and innovation, and emissions stored carbon (in forests, soils and wetlands.)
The lower portion of the chart represents the additional reductions which we calculated to be necessary to meet our minimum Paris Agreement pledge to do our share towards keeping the increases in global temperatures below 2 degrees C. However, we pledged to take actions consistent with holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C.
The bottom dark blue bar represents the further reductions that Canada needs to get our emissions to zero before 2025 in order to meet our population-based share of the carbon budget for keeping temperature increases below 2.0 degrees. The Government's reduction target of 523 Mt is sufficient for our emissions-based share of keeping temperature increases below 2 degrees C.
Canada has already exceeded its population-based share for meeting our pledge to keep temperature increase to 1.5 degrees.
Overall, our version illustrates the shortfall of the Government's plan in meeting its Paris promise to keep temperatures below 2 degrees (based on our share of the global population).