The October 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report increased the Global Carbon Budget for a likely (66%) probability of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards population sharing. (We are working on updating this.)
The data in the original chart (on the right), which formed the basis for our chart, begins at the 2030 expected emissions (742 MtCO2e) and then works through reductions to a lower level (the current Canadian target of 523 MtCO2e by 2030). Therefore the chart reads from top to bottom. It's important to remember these are REDUCTIONS.
The top 3 bands of the chart indicate how the government plans to reduce these emissions based on plans from the Climate Plan, (i.e. government regulations and others such as carbon pricing and actions by provinces such as Ontario and Quebec purchasing carbon credits from California), until they reach their target of 523 MtCO2e (the 30% target by 2030 committed to by previous Harper government and which remains unchanged by the Liberals).
The light blue band represents the announced government reductions (89 MtCO2e) and include those due to regulations (e.g. reductions in HFCs, heavy duty vehicles, methane), provincial measures and international cap and trade credits.
The yellow band represents the reductions (86 MtCO2e) due to measures in the Pan-Canadian Framework such as electricity (coal phase-out by 2030), buildings, transportation (federal clean fuel standard) and industry.
The green band is for the additional reductions (44 MtCO2e) from measures such as improved public transit and green infrastructure, technology and innovation, and emissions stored carbon (in forests, soils and wetlands.)
Climate Action Now's version
The red bar represents the further reductions that Canada needs to get our emissions to net-zero before 2022 in order to meet a population-based share of the carbon budget for keeping global temperature increases below 1.5 degrees C. If Canada wants to do our fair share of keeping global temperatures below 1.5 degrees we should reach net-zero emissions by 2022. Since we don't have enough time to get to net-zero then we need to be creative with Carbon Capture and Storage, and also assist underdeveloped countries in reducing their emissions.
In Paris, Canada pledged to take actions consistent with holding the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C. However, the recent IPCC report states that we ought to aim for 1.5 degrees instead of 2 degrees.