The October 2018 IPCC Special Report (SR15) increased the Global Carbon Budget for a 66% of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards per-capita sharing. (We are working on updating this.)

Toronto's Emissions-based Targets

Toronto's emissions reduction targets are documented in the TransformTO plan (pdf):

  • 30 % by 2020
  • 80 % by 2050
  • An interim target of 65% by 2030 in the recent TransformTO#2 (pending approval by City Council in July 2017)

As of 2017, our remaining emissions-based shares are 99 MtCO2e for a likely chance of remaining below 1.5oC and 463 MtCO2e for below 2oC.

The following charts compares the original TransformTO targets with the limits needed to keep below Toronto's emissions-based carbon budgets for keeping global temperatures below 1.5oC or 2oC.

TransformTO targets and population-shared emission reduction limits
TransformTO targets and emissions-shared emission reduction limits
The population-based limits are much more ambitious than the TransformTO plan targets (blue line). It would be possible to meet the limit for remaining below 2oC by approximately 2019.
The emissions-based limits are less ambitious than the population-based limits. The TransformTO targets (blue line) are very close to the emissions-based limits for the maximum global temperature increase for 2 oC.

The legends are described below. Click on the charts to see them full size.

The emissions-based emission reduction limits for remaining below 1.5 or 2oC are in this table (below Toronto's 1990 annual emissions of 27 MtCO2e)

below 1.5oC
below 2oC
30% - 19 MtCO2e
53% - 13MtCO2e
38% - 17 MtCO2e
100% (by 2027)
48% - 14 MtCO2e
64% - 10 MtCO2e
80% - 5 MtCO2e
79% - 6MtCO2e



Legend for charts

The blue line represents TransformTO's limits and the diamonds represent annual emissions:

20 MtCO2e (6% below 1990 by 2012)
19 MtCO2e (30% below 1990 by 2020)
 5 MtCO2e (80% below 1990 by 2050)

The green line represents Toronto's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5oC which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The yellow line represents the limits for keeping global temperatures remaining below 2oC. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3oC. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.

Population-based share is based on Toronto's share of the global population (0.03%).

Emissions-based share is based on Toronto's share of global emissions (0.05%)