Do you remember this? it was a result of the ice storm in Toronto in 2013. The heat wave in 2016? we can expect more frequent climate change events in the future.
Toronto's emissions reduction targets are documented in the TransformTO plan (pdf):
- 30 % by 2020
- 80 % by 2050
Toronto's share of the global population is 0.03%. Therefore, as of 2017, our share of the global carbon budget is approximately 250 MtCO2e if we want to do our share to prevent global temperatures from increasing by more than 2oC. (As of 2018 we will have exceeded our population-based share of the global carbon budget for remaining under 1.5oC so there is no point in aiming for that.) As of 2017, our remaining emissions-based shares are 99 MtCO2e for a likely chance of remaining below 1.5oC and 463 MtCO2e for below 2oC.
The following charts compares the TransformTO targets with the limits needed to keep below Toronto's carbon budgets for < 1.5 or 2oC.
The legends are described below. Click on the charts to see them full size.
The emissions-based emission reduction limits for remaining below 1.5 or 2oC are in this table (below 1990 annual emissions of 27.05 MtCO2e)
- 2 years for less than 1.5oC
- 13 years for less than 2oC
The blue line represents TransformTO's limits and the diamonds represent annual emissions:
20 MtCO2e (6% below 1990 by 2012)
19 MtCO2e (30% below 1990 by 2020)
5 MtCO2e (80% below 1990 by 2050)
The green line represents Toronto's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5oC which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The yellow line represents the limits for keeping global temperatures remaining below 2oC. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3oC. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.