Toronto's Targets

Do you remember this? it was a result of the ice storm in Toronto in 2013. The heat wave in 2016? we can expect more frequent climate change events in the future.

Toronto's emissions reduction targets are documented in the TransformTO plan (pdf):

  • 30 % by 2020
  • 80 % by 2050

Toronto's share of the global population is 0.03%. Therefore, as of 2017, our share of the global carbon budget is approximately 250 MtCO2e if we want to do our share to prevent global temperatures from increasing by more than 2oC. (As of 2018 we will have exceeded our population-based share of the global carbon budget for remaining under 1.5oC so there is no point in aiming for that.) As of 2017, our remaining emissions-based shares are 99 MtCO2e for a likely chance of remaining below 1.5oC and 463 MtCO2e for below 2oC.

The following charts compares the TransformTO targets with the limits needed to keep below Toronto's carbon budgets for < 1.5 or 2oC.

TransformTO, population-shared emission reduction limits
Population-shared and emissions-shared carbon budgets and cumulative emissions resulting from TransformTO emission reduction limits
The population-based limits are much more ambitious than the TransformTO plan targets (blue line). It would be possible to meet the limit for remaining below 2oC by approximately 2019.
This represents the carbon budgets and cumulative emissions that the TransformTO plan will lead to (blue line). There are 4 carbon budgets depending upon the maximum global temperature increase (1.5 and 2 oC) and sharing strategy (population-based or emissions-based).

The legends are described below. Click on the charts to see them full size.

The emissions-based emission reduction limits for remaining below 1.5 or 2oC are in this table (below 1990 annual emissions of 27.05 MtCO2e)

Year
TransformTO
< 1.5oC
< 2oC
2020
30% - 19 MtCO2e
100% (by 2019)
38% - 17 MtCO2e
2030
 
 
66% - 9 MtCO2e
2040
 
 
94% - 2 MtCO2e
2050
80% - 5 MtCO2e
 
100% (by 2042)

 

How many years of our remaining budgets (from 2016) will Toronto have if we continue emitting at our current rate of approximately 20 MtCO2e/year?

  • 2 years for less than 1.5oC
  • 13 years for less than 2oC

Click here to view the differences between population-based and emissions-based limits.

Footnotes

Legend for charts

The blue line represents TransformTO's limits and the diamonds represent annual emissions:

20 MtCO2e (6% below 1990 by 2012)
19 MtCO2e (30% below 1990 by 2020)
 5 MtCO2e (80% below 1990 by 2050)

The green line represents Toronto's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5oC which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The yellow line represents the limits for keeping global temperatures remaining below 2oC. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")

The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3oC. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.

Population-based share is based on Toronto's share of the global population (0.03%).

Emissions-based share is based on Toronto's share of global emissions (0.05%)