The October 2018 IPCC Special Report (SR15) increased the Global Carbon Budget for a 66% of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards per-capita sharing. (We are working on updating this.)
Do you remember this? it was a result of the ice storm in Toronto in 2013. The heat wave in 2016? we can expect more frequent climate change events in the future.
Toronto's emissions reduction targets are documented in the TransformTO plan (pdf):
- 30 % by 2020
- 65 % by 2030 (set in the TransformTO plan)
- 80 % by 2050
Toronto's share of the global population is 0.03%. Therefore, as of 2017, our share of the global carbon budget is approximately 250 MtCO2e if we want to do our bit to prevent global temperatures from increasing by more than 2oC. (As of 2018 we will have exceeded our population-based share of the global carbon budget for remaining under 1.5oC so there is no point in aiming for that.) As of 2017, our remaining emissions-based shares are 99 MtCO2e for a likely chance of remaining around 1.5oC and 463 MtCO2e for remaining below 2oC.
The following chart compares the TransformTO targets with the targets needed to keep below Toronto's cumulative emission limits for keeping global temperature increases of 1.5oC or less than 2oC.
TransformTO and Recommended Targets
The population-based targets are more ambitious than the TransformTO plan targets (red line). It would be possible to meet the limit for 2oC by approximately 2038 if the recommended targets (blue) were met.
The population-based emission reduction targets for 1.5oC or below 2oC are in this table (percentages are those below 1990 annual emissions of 27.05 MtCO2e)
- 1 year for global temperature increases of 1.5oC
- 12 years for global temperature increases of less than 2oC