Do you remember this? it was a result of the ice storm in Toronto in 2013. The heat wave in 2016? we can expect more frequent climate change events in the future.
Toronto's emissions reduction targets are documented in the TransformTO plan (pdf):
- 30 % by 2020
- 80 % by 2050
An updated version of the TransformTO plan was approved by City Council. This plan adds an interim target of 65% by 2030. However City Council hasn't agreed on how to fund the plan.
Toronto's share of the global population is 0.03%. Therefore, as of 2017, our share of the global carbon budget is approximately 250 MtCO2e if we want to do our bit to prevent global temperatures from increasing by more than 2oC. (As of 2018 we will have exceeded our population-based share of the global carbon budget for remaining under 1.5oC so there is no point in aiming for that.) As of 2017, our remaining emissions-based shares are 99 MtCO2e for a likely chance of remaining around 1.5oC and 463 MtCO2e for remaining below 2oC.
The following chart compares the TransformTO targets with the targets needed to keep below Toronto's cumulative emission limits for keeping global temperature increases of 1.5oC or less than 2oC.
Population-based emission reduction targets
The lines on this chart represent various emission reduction targets:
- The red line - the proposed targets in the TransformTO # 2 report (30% by 2020, 65% by 2030 and 80% by 2050)
- The blue line - the targets for keeping temperature increases below 2 degrees if we start in 2020
- The green line - what our targets should be to keep global temperature increases close to 1.5 degrees
- The yellow line - Toronto's actual emissions between 1990 and 2013
The population-based targets are more ambitious than the proposed TransformTO plan targets (red line). It would be possible to meet the limit for 2oC by approximately 2038 if the recommended targets (blue) were met.
The population-based emission reduction targets for 1.5oC or below 2oC are in this table (percentages are those below 1990 annual emissions of 27.05 MtCO2e)
* the 65% target is a a proposed target in the most recent TransformTO plan. It has not been approved by City Council (as of June 2017).
- 1 year for global temperature increases of 1.5oC
- 12 years for global temperature increases of less than 2oC