This chart illustrates the difference between the projected cumulative emissions if we follow Canada's Pan-Canadian Framework targets (30% less than 2005 emissions by 2030) and the 2018 IPCC (45% less than 2010 emissions by 2030). Both IPCC and PCF have net-zero targets by 2050. The cumulative emissions are illustrated by the areas under the coloured lines and the amount of emissions are in the coloured bubbles: orange for the IPCC targets, purple for the PCF targets and blue for the difference.
Until 2030, the rate of reduction would be less to reach the higher PCF (30%) than the IPCC (45%) target. However, after 2030, the PCF rate for Canada to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 increases significantly.
What about the carbon budgets? The cumulative emissions (which are subtracted from the Canadian share of the global carbon budget) are represented by the areas under the lines (starting in 2018). The cumulative emissions for the PCF targets (12,600 MtCO2e) are approximately 20% greater (2,560 MtCO2e) than those of the IPCC targets (10,400 MtCO2e).
How do these cumulative emissions compare with our shares of the global carbon budget?
Canada's population share is 2,700 MtCO2e; the emissions share is 9,140 MtCO2e; and the GDP share is 10,750 MtCO2e.
Our cumulative emissions if Canada meets the IPCC targets are slightly less than the GDP share of the budget. (Sounds good as long as you aren't a resident of a developing country.)