Global Emissions

The global targets are based on the IPCC carbon budgets. There are no official targets but we have calculated what the targets would be if the limits were for remaining around 1.5oC (using the recent carbon budget for 1.5C) or reaching 45% below 2010 levels and net-zero emissions by 2050 (as recommended by the recent IPCC report.) Global targets are specified as Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

We have also calculated what Canada, Ontario and Toronto must do to meet these targets.

The following charts are an example of what global emission reductions need to be along with the cumulative emissions resulting from the suggested limits. They assume that emissions are reduced at the same rate each year. There is a history of global emissions here.

Suggested Global Emissions Reduction Targets

The following chart represents the targets for keeping the total global emissions under the cumulative limits for a likely (66%) chance of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 (green) and and for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 (blue).

Global Emission Reduction Targets

Cumulative Emissions Due to Suggested Targets

The horizontal lines represent the maximum cumulative emissions for a likely (66%) chance of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 1.5C (orange) and net-zero by 2050 (red). The other lines represent the cumulative emissions if we follow the targets for 1.5C (green) and net-zero by 2050 (blue).

Click on the charts to see them full size

The emission reduction targets for remaining below 1.5C or net-zero emissions by 2050 are in this table (compared to 2018 emissions).

Year

<1.5oC

Net-zero by 2050

2020

1.3% above
38,900 MtCO2

1.3% above
38,900 MtCO2

2030

100% (by 2037)

52%
18,555 MtCO2

2040

 

75%
9,280 MtCO2

2050

 

100%

 

What happens if we do not reduce our annual emissions?

According to CarbonBrief in 2020:

Our analysis shows that:

The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with a central estimate of between 2030 and 2032.

The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.

In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.